Better late than never...

by John Farmer

I sent the following to one of the dailies, who declined to publish it. This was disappointing, considering that they managed to print a letter from an American on the same topic not once but twice! Which, I suppose, goes to confirm the old adage "if it ain't come over de bar it ain't no good".

The Editor,
The Tribune,
Shirley St.,
Nassau.

March 18, 2006

Sir,

I would appreciate the space to comment on your front page article today (March 18^th) regarding Minister Mitchell and the diplomatic postings to China. You quote the minister as stating “Everyone knows that China will be the most powerful economy within 10 to 15 years”.

I beg to differ. The “power” of China is a common misconception. In fact, in 2005, the official GDP of China was 1.833 Trillion, smaller than France (2.118T), Britain (2.275T), Germany, (2.83T), Japan (4.955T), and barely exceeding that of Italy (1.733T), and completely dwarfed by the USA (12.77T). (From the CIA's World factbook).

Even if one were to project economies 10 or 15 years ahead (a dubious exercise at best), China would still rank significantly below the USA using existing growth rates. At its 9.2% growth, China’s economy in 10 years would be worth about 4.2T, and 6.86T in 15 years. In comparison, at current growth rates (3.5%) the economy of the USA projects to approximately 18T in 10 years, and 21T in 15 years. It would take China 15 years to simply catch up with the economy of Japan (2.1% growth rate).

One would also have to consider the political, social and military situation. China’s military is not even powerful enough to realistically invade and hold Taiwan using conventional weaponry. As a “communist” dictatorship barely 50 years in the making, its political system hardly compares to the mature democracies of the west. It further begs the question as to whether gradual reform is even possible in this country of stark differences in prosperity between the coastal cities and the desperate poor in the rural communities. Not to mention the fact that due to its “one child” policy, China has the most rapidly aging population in the world.

Relying on the perceived wisdom of “everybody” seems to invariably fly in the face of the facts.