WeblogBahamas.com

Bahamas Election 2007 reflections

By John Farmer.

We have heard a lot of comment over that past few days on the reason for the defeat of the PLP at the polls on May 2nd.

I believe it was for a singular reason - the PLP is still our father’s PLP.

In May 2002, the new PLP administration started brightly, with PM Christie promising a code of ethics with which to guide his party’s conduct in office. It did not take long for the PLP to resume its’ original persona, with victimisation, nepotism, corruption, bribery, deceit and secretive governance the order of the day. Not to mention their abhorrent attempt to undermine the independence of the judiciary, and their attempts, once again, to usurp the will of the people at the ballot box.

The Education Conundrum.

By John Farmer.

As another calendar year comes to a close, it is long past time for a serious debate on educational reform in this country. There is no point in waiting for yet another round of miserable results followed by the usual bout of handwringing regarding the abject failure of our public educational system (if one can use that word to describe something so dysfunctional).

The teachers blame the parents, the parents blame the teachers, and the students continue to 'graduate' into the job market with an 'education' that renders them virtually unemployable.

Trouble with Petreolos de Venezeula?

By John Farmer.

By now we have been exposed ad nauseum by the proposed plan for us to buy oil from Venezuela on the endless credit plan, however, can Venezuela actually deliver the goods? An article in the Economist (Oil's dark secret - issue of August 12th) makes interesting reading.

Venezuela's national oil company - Petreoleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA as it is known, was ceated out of the nationalisation of their oil industry in the 1970s. Former foreign concessions became free standing divisions within PDVSA; many of the existing managers and staff remained in place. Relatively free from political interference, the company developed a reputation of competent professionalism. Less than a tenth of their oil fields actually spout oil, the remainder require gas and water pumped into the ground to force the oil out. Moreover, the oil produced is more viscous and acidic than the norm, and so harder to handle. It has been estimated that Venezuela has to add 400,000 b/d (barrels per day) of capacity just to maintain output, which they did. In the 1990s they undertook to expand capacity to 6.5M b/d by increasing their own output, and inviting foreign companies to invest in marginal fields.

How About a Fish & Wildlife Patrol?

By John Farmer.

I was sitting at a friends house last evening before dinner, discussing the state of wildlife (or lack thereof) in the country today. Both being avid weekend fishermen, we got into a discussion about overfishing, my having just read a book called 'The end of the Line' about overfishing globally. We both agreed that both conch and crawfish are in danger of collapse if existing stocks are not protected, and applauded the government for shortening the crawfish season by a month at either end. (The poor conch, being the progenitor of many a strong back, will have to fend for itself. I guess we will not learn until the stock collapses and there is none at all.) We also applauded Minister Miller's increased the restrictions on catches by our visting yachtsmen.

But the primary problem, we both agreed, is the lack of enforcement on existing regulations. And it is the visitors and poachers we think are the worse offenders, particularly our visitors from South Florida who should know better. We also both agreed that leaving enforcement to the government is a waste of time. So we came up with the following idea, and I said I would blog it.

Create an entity called the Fish and Wildlife Patrol, with the powers to stop, search, arrest and confiscate. Place it under the auspices and management of the Bahamas National Trust, and have the government subsidise a suitable operating budget. Then let them go out and enforce the fishing and wildlife regulations already on our books, with the right to keep any property seized and the proceeds of any sale thereof. And then watch a serious clampdown take place; all it needs is for a few offenders to have their boats confiscated, and then everyone will get the message load and clear. As for the poachers, I say throw them all in gaol for a minimum of 5 years (crew) and 10 (captain) in Fox 'Hell' Prison - that will run them up on brakes.

My friend says he will be the first one to quit his job and join the patrol, and I am sure he will be joined by any number of dedicated volunteers who see the rape of our natural resources and weep.

Perhaps, then, there will be a day in our future when our children's children will also be able to enjoy a casual catch of conch, crawfish & grouper.

As for the book - 'The End of the Line - How overfishing is changing the world and what we eat.' by Charles Clover - should be required reading for all secretaries at the Department Of Fisheries (and all Ministers prior to assuming office).

The LNG Controversy

By John Farmer

In May of last year I wrote a letter to the editors of the two main dailies regarding LNG. As this is back in the news, I thought it would be relevant to revisit the subject:

I would first like to make a specific point to my fellow Bahamians, which I have not heard made so far in this public debate. Sometime in this year or next, world oil production will peak and start to decline. This, coupled with the rise of China as an economic power with its insatiable appetite for oil, is going to result in an increasing demand for a shrinking supply of oil. If you think the cost of gas and electricity is high now, you ain’t seen nuttin’ yet.

So what is the fuel of the future? You guessed it - natural gas. It is this simple dynamic that is behind the attempts to develop a natural gas supply to Florida, which remains one of the fastest growing states in the USA, and whose demand for energy increases unabated.

It is for these two fundamental reasons that companies are looking to establish LNG terminals in the Bahamas.

While I do appreciate and support the efforts of the environmental lobby, in this case I find myself unable to agree with some of their views of the proposed LNG terminals in general. But let us focus on the facility proposed for Ocean Cay, as that is the option being promoted by the government.

The first objection appears to be environmental - how could we consider putting a facility such as this in our pristine Bahamaland? The facility is proposed for Ocean Cay, which is a MAN-MADE (i.e. artificial) cay on the edge of the Florida Straits that has been used for mining aragonite for as long as I can remember. We are not talking about placing the facility in the middle of the Exuma Cays (to which I would vociferously object); we are placing it in a remote, artificial, pre-existing industrial facility.

The second objection appears to be the risks associated with the facility - it might blow up, we don’t know how to regulate it, it might be the target for terrorists etc. etc. There are risks associated with all forms of energy. We have managed oil trans-shipment facilities and oil refineries in Freeport, LPG (low propane gas) and gasoline facilities all over the place, and we have been able to manage these facilities without an attendant rash of explosions. So why should we assume that we are incompetent or unable to manage an LNG facility? I am sure our many competent Bahamian professionals find the implication insulting.

As to the terrorist angle, I consider the current hysteria regarding the threat of terrorism to be a byproduct of the domestic political agenda of the United States, and any ‘terrorist’ threat to the Bahamas to be somewhere between minimal and non-existent. If there were to be an attack, let’s face it - they are not going to attack some remote cay that no-one ever heard of which the press cannot easily cover, they are going to go after a high profile target. If you want to worry about terrorism, worry about the impact on our tourism industry from another attack in the USA; this is an infinitely more likely scenario.

This is not to say that I do not have concerns regarding the facility, but they are not environmental, nor are they based on the risk assessment. Rather, they are financial and economic.

First, the financial benefits appear to be inadequate at $20M per year. With annual revenues of almost $1,000M per year, $20M is a relatively insignificant amount to the Public Treasury. At this rate it would take 50 years of operation to provide one year’s worth of revenue to the Treasury. Given basic economics, surely the volumes will afford a larger income to the Bahamas? What I would like to see is a breakdown of the revenue generated by the gas, and what percentage we are expected to receive. Without knowing the facts, it appears to this observer that we a selling ourselves seriously short.

Secondly, I see no mention in the proposal for the Bahamas to receive any of the benefit of LNG other than cash; i.e., why can’t we get some of this natural gas for our own uses? Given the looming energy crisis outlined at the beginning of this letter, it would appear to this observer that our primary objective in this project would be to guarantee future supplies of energy to guard against the decline of existing energy sources. This aspect appears to have been completely overlooked; at least I can find no mention of it in any of the multiplicity of information put out by both sides. If we are going to allow this facility in our country the least we can do is to ensure we benefit fully from it.

I trust our politicians will not be so distracted by environmental and risk issues that they fail to take into consideration the real benefits that we could gain from this project. It would be unfortunate in ten years time to find ourselves sending millions of dollars in gas to Florida, while we are unable to fulfill our own energy needs at affordable prices.

I can assure you this is going to have more of an impact on our tourism industry than any environmental fallout from this proposed project.

The Montague Ramp

By John Farmer

There is an old adage that a camel is a horse designed by committee. Regrettably, the committee chaired by Pierre Dupuch to redesign the Montague ramp area has emerged with a concept worthy of the camel.

While the intent is laudable, insofar as the idea is to create a smaller version of Arawak Cay, the fact remains the commitee has done nothing with the ramp itself other than to wall it off from the main road, forcing all traffic for the ramp through the feeder road at the traffic light. Going by the grade school schematic printed in the Tribune of July 21st (could they not afford a proper draughtsman if not architect?), it is obvious that no-one in the committee has ever towed or tried to launch a boat down a ramp. Their hopelessly impractical proposal has one forced to drive forward into the parking area next to the ramp, execute a u-turn in what is sure to be a crowded parking lot, and attempt to reverse the boat down the ramp while concurrently turning a corner. Perhaps the Dupuch committee envisages ticketed bleacher seating for the general public to witness the spectacle. It would certainly require a full time police presence to detail the resulting fender benders, and to moderate the consequent fighting that is sure to erupt.

The UNprofessionals of the medical profession.

by John Farmer

What is it with doctors in this country who imagine that the only worthwhile time is their own? Having made an appointment two weeks ago for 2:45, I left at 3:20, advising the receptionist that I had reached my waiting limit. (Actually, my limit was 30 minutes, but I had to wait another 5 minutes for receptionist to return from the bowels of the building to advise her I was leaving, extending a courtesy that was not afforded me).

“Oh I’m so sorry!” (Really?) “Doctor had an emergency” (Right!)

As I pointed out, I could have been advised beforehand doctor was running late – if you can call to remind me of an appointment, why can you not call to tell me there is a delay? Or even advise me when I presented myself promptly 5 minutes before the appointed hour? It is this complete lack of respect for other people’s time that really burns me up.

The Traffic "Problem" On New Providence

by John Farmer

There has been a lot of press coverage lately about the so-called "traffic problem" in New Providence. The Tribune published an article early in the week following an interview with a civil servant in the Road Traffic department. According to this gentleman, the population of NP will be reduced as everyone moves out to take up those jobs-to-be in the Out Island anchor projects, hence alleviating the traffic problem. Let's not hold your breath waiting for that to happen!

The reality is the traffic problem is a result of a non-existent public transportation service (I do not classify the Jitney "service" as "public" transport), particularly with regard to the schools. As any worker in Nassau will tell you, there is no "traffic problem" when the schools are out. Therefore the first step towards alleviating the problem would be to develop a school bus system.

Better late than never...

by John Farmer

I sent the following to one of the dailies, who declined to publish it. This was disappointing, considering that they managed to print a letter from an American on the same topic not once but twice! Which, I suppose, goes to confirm the old adage "if it ain't come over de bar it ain't no good".

The Editor,
The Tribune,
Shirley St.,
Nassau.

March 18, 2006

Sir,

I would appreciate the space to comment on your front page article today (March 18^th) regarding Minister Mitchell and the diplomatic postings to China. You quote the minister as stating “Everyone knows that China will be the most powerful economy within 10 to 15 years”.

I beg to differ. The “power” of China is a common misconception. In fact, in 2005, the official GDP of China was 1.833 Trillion, smaller than France (2.118T), Britain (2.275T), Germany, (2.83T), Japan (4.955T), and barely exceeding that of Italy (1.733T), and completely dwarfed by the USA (12.77T). (From the CIA's World factbook).

Even if one were to project economies 10 or 15 years ahead (a dubious exercise at best), China would still rank significantly below the USA using existing growth rates. At its 9.2% growth, China’s economy in 10 years would be worth about 4.2T, and 6.86T in 15 years. In comparison, at current growth rates (3.5%) the economy of the USA projects to approximately 18T in 10 years, and 21T in 15 years. It would take China 15 years to simply catch up with the economy of Japan (2.1% growth rate).

One would also have to consider the political, social and military situation. China’s military is not even powerful enough to realistically invade and hold Taiwan using conventional weaponry. As a “communist” dictatorship barely 50 years in the making, its political system hardly compares to the mature democracies of the west. It further begs the question as to whether gradual reform is even possible in this country of stark differences in prosperity between the coastal cities and the desperate poor in the rural communities. Not to mention the fact that due to its “one child” policy, China has the most rapidly aging population in the world.

Relying on the perceived wisdom of “everybody” seems to invariably fly in the face of the facts.

John Farmer

John Farmer is the President of Custom Computers Ltd, the local representative for Hewlett Packard, Apple, and Konica-Minolta.

Born in London, England, Mr. Farmer is a graduate of the University of London, England with first class honours degree in Computer Science.

Mr. Farmer is married with 2 children.

Click here for blogs by John Farmer.