By Richard Coulson
First Published in The Tribune November 3, 2008
“Bahamas for Obama” has a nice ring to it. And if we could vote in the U.S. election, that’s probably how we would go. But the relevant question is, how will the American people vote?
Before the 2004 election, I predicted in this journal that George W. Bush would win. I was right. Despite my personal preference for Kerry, I forecast that the Republican grip on the rock-ribbed conservative evangelical bloc in the south and mid-west would push Dubya to victory, and so it turned out.
The latest polls tell us that Barrack Obama should handily defeat John McCain. They give McCain about 142 definite or probable electoral votes, with 306 for Obama and 90 in the “toss-up” states like Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. Even the Republican hatchet man Karl Rove’s own polling company does not differ much from these figures. Assuming McCain wins all these doubtful states, he still will not reach the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. But the current poll figures must always be taken with the caveat “if the votes were cast today” and the warning that preferences may be hidden from the pollsters or may change at the last minute. Still, the odds seem heavily in favor of Obama.
The voting trends differ from what we saw in 2004. First, the racial factor cannot be denied. Unfortunately, there is a hard core of Americans who will not vote for Obama just because he is black, whatever his excellent qualities may be. But they will be roughly balanced by a group who will favor Obama just because he is black, whatever his doubtful qualities may be.
For voters whose decisions pro or con are not governed by race, the choice is more difficult. On the one hand, they see the eloquence and intellect of Obama combined with the appealing “time for a change” formula, on the other hand they note his lack of experience, his ultra-liberal voting record as a Senator, and his past affiliation with undesirable associates whom he has failed to repudiate forcefully.
When they consider McCain, they are certainly aware of his fortitude during the unimaginable sufferings of a prisoner of war for five years, in conditions far from the Geneva Convention, and they have seen his gutsy determination to make a mark in American politics despite many setbacks from which he has fought hard to recover. On the other hand, they cannot ignore his inconsistent, vacillating record on important issues like immigration, his abrupt changes of tactics when faced with the current financial crisis, and his eccentric choice of Sarah Palin as vice-presidential candidate, a choice which has solidified his support from the “Joe Six-Pack” hard right but alienated (or amused) the rest of the electorate. And, through no fault of his own, he carries the same Republican label as the disastrous Bush, although he hardly dares to mention that name.
It does seem that vast swathes of the voting public that in the past might have divided pretty evenly between Republican and Democrat are now trending heavily towards Obama. Younger voters, higher income citizens, college graduates, suburbanites – all are reported to prefer him, of course with the well-known imprecision of the polling system. Naturally we see the irreducible nucleus of McCain enthusiasts who are passionate about his long life of undoubted service to the nation, but it’s unlikely that this committed group is as large as the patriotic “moral majority” that carried Bush to victory at the height of the Iraq war.
Votes for Obama will not always be cast with total enthusiasm. My own ballot would go to him, but with nagging doubts. From a life spent in the free-market business and financial community, I am wary of his ultra-liberal policy agenda. The “spread-the-wealth” charges bleated by Joe the Plumber and the Republicans are certainly overdone – after all, who can seriously oppose graduated income tax rates? – but nevertheless Obama’s liberal emphasis on government funding makes me uneasy. I take some comfort in knowing that once he takes office, he will be governed by the tough budgetary realities and will be surrounded by hard-headed advisors who will lead him towards the middle and away from the liberal extremists.
I and many others are more concerned about what I may call his personal attitudes. Although he eventually broke with Rev. Jeremiah Wright, he spent years in his church absorbing his anti-American rants. If he were not running for President, would he still be sitting in those pews? His criticisms of William Ayers, the one-time anarchist bomber, have been tepid at best, on the theory that he “reformed”. This is the man who less than ten years ago said he only regretted not planting more bombs; but instead of vilifying him as a criminal, Obama sat around a board-room table with him. It’s only fair to question his judgment of people.
But taking the rough with the smooth, I would favor him over McCain. Ultimately, I prefer his calm, deliberative style to McCain’s erratic, shoot-from-the-hip approach. The former naval hero has admitted that flying over Vietnam he ignored the warning buzzer that told him a missile was on his tail, doubtless in a gung-ho effort to close with his target but that led to his crash. That kind of impulsive gallantry is fine for a fighter pilot, but is it right for the White House? And what if Sarah Palin comes to sit in the chair? – by no means unlikely with a president carrying 72 years and a shaky medical history. That prospect frankly terrifies me, and doubtless many American voters too.
So I predict, no doubt rashly and ready to eat my words, that Obama will win the popular vote by at least 5% and tally a majority of at least 100 electoral votes.
The more interesting prospect will be the complete overturning of the U.S. political scene that has prevailed for the last eight years. We will see not simply changes in specific policies, but a radical reversal of the entire philosophy of how government should carry on the business of governing. The core of Bush-Cheney values will be shattered and re-built – the extent of presidential power, tackling the environment and global warming, cooperation with other nations, al Qaeda and the Muslim world, the China colossus, treatment of war-time prisoners, surveillance vs. personal rights of privacy, gun control, health care, stem-cell research, abortion rights and gay marriage, regulation of the financial markets, economic “bail-outs”.
All these issues will be examined with a fresh eye. Some of the results may be shocking to traditional ideology, but the evolution will be fascinating to watch.
Mr. Coulson has had a long career in law, investment banking and private banking in New York, London, and Nassau, and now serves as director of several financial concerns and as a corporate financial consultant.
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